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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.